The Blue Jays are getting BABIPed to
death. What is BABIP some of you ask?
In baseball statistics, Batting average on
balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) measures how many of a batter’s balls in play
go for hits, or how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits, excluding
home runs. BABIP is commonly used as a
red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard
to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be
used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as with other statistical measures;
those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve
in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can
often be expected to regress in the following season.
Over the course of season, most pitchers
BABIP will regress to the norm. Putting
it waaaaay too simply, if you have a very high BABIP as a pitcher, you can expect
to see better results going forward. Of course other factors come into play such as GB/FB rates and the defensive team behind you. And we haven't talked about K% or BB%, but generally if you have a low BABIP your success may
be a bit of smoke & mirrors….which hold on a second – THAT IS THE GREATEST
NAME FOR A BAND EVER!!!!!!!! (is it taken?....quick internet search….damn!)
In any event, Dickey, Morrow, Buerhle and
Johnson all have a higher BABIP than past history and league norms would
suggest is well….normal. Happ is the
only starter who has a lower BABIP for the month of April than “expectations” would
otherwise suggest. What does this
mean? It means barring injury (What’s
that? JJ was scratched for tonight you say…… shiiiiiiiiiiitttt) Dickey, Morrow,
Buerhle and Johnson can all expect somewhat improved results going forward and
Happ may see a bit of a drop-off. I will
gladly take the trade-off! However, it isn't the SP BABIP's that intrigued me.
What about the hitting you ask? Now here is where it gets dangerous to draw conclusions,
but it is currently so extreme that it has to suggest something. Hitter’s BABIP’s range much, much more and
outliers are more sustainable. This makes sense as “power” would suggest more balls
in play are going to go as hits. Also speed will get you more hits off of
ground balls as you can leg out infield singles. So your BABIP should decrease with age as
power and speed decrease. As well, different types of hitters can sustain very different BABIP's over their career. However the
numbers are just way too obvious to ignore.
11 out of 14 Jays hitters currently have a BABIP below their career average. 11 out of 14!
The only three above their career norms are Arencibia, Rasmus and
the injured Reyes.
Guys like Izturis, Bonifacio, Encarnacion,
Lawrie and Bautista are way off their career norms. Like absurdly off. Are they
getting slower….maybe Izturis just a bit, but the other guys still have their
legs. Are they old? Nope.
So what is happening? Well they
just aren’t “getting lucky”. I know no
one wants to hear that, but it is true.
They are hitting the ball at people. None of them are getting the benefit
of an occasional seeing-eye single.
Izturis has a career BABIP of .293, this year it is freaking .148!!!!
That is insane and unsustainable in a good way.
Bautista is 122 points below his career norm! Bonifacio is 100 points below.
I know it is hard to chalk things up to bad
luck or “misplaced” hits but it will change.
Years of statistical analysis will back this up. Line drives will start finding the gaps and
ground balls will start sneaking through.
The Jays will start winning. I guarantee it*
http://www.tvfanatic.com/quotes/shows/the-simpsons/episodes/lady-bouviers-lover/page-2.html
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