So that's that. I made it through this season, and if you are reading this, so did you. Congratulations! It isn't easy to stay interested in a team that fell flat on its face from Game 1 onward. I want to thank each of you that occasionally checked in and read my ramblings. I hope it somehow made the season a little more fun.
I wish I had some insightful and poignant words about this Blue Jays season, but truthfully and sadly, I'm kind of glad it is over. The reality is it sucks to have such high hopes and to have them trampled and over and over again for 162 games.
There are no guarantees in baseball. Seasons with great expectations can fall way short just as easy as unexpected successful ones can occur seemingly out of nowhere. Just because the Jays now have the second longest playoff drought in all of the major North American professional sports (Royals have the longest) doesn't mean 2014 can't be our year.
I mean if I told you at the beginning of the year that the Jays would lose 90 games, the Angels would be below .500, but that Cleveland would be in the playoffs who would have believed me? Or that my beloved Pirates would be in and that the Washington Nationals would be out? Of course not; that's what makes sports enjoyable - the unexpected moments and results. Of course you have to take the good with the bad. So given all "the bad" that occurred this year, here's hoping that next year we are due for "some good".
So that's it, I'm shutting this baby down after 45 entries and it is a bit of a relief. It wasn't always easy to muster the enthusiasm, but I'm glad I undertook the exercise. Does this disastrous season mean that I won't follow closely through the winter as the Jays try to adjust their roster or buy tickets next year or look hopefully to February and then Opening Day? Of course not. I love this game and I love this team. I'm sure by November I will feel similar to Jack:
This post really shouldn’t be Part II of “I Know What I Know - Part I” because I really don’t know what to do about the starting staff.I have strong views on the starting 9 and the
bullpen, but damn if I KNOW how to fix a starting staff that in March was going
to be a pillar of strength and by the end of April had turned into a disaster.Anyhoo, let’s give it a shot and pretend that I
actually have the answers.
1. Should
the Jays have faith that Dickey has settled down and can at least be a #2 type
guy next year?
I know I don’t know.Yes?No?I want to believe, I really
do. I do know he is trying his best to figure it out.
2. If Dickey is #2, who is #1?
I know it might not matter in the winter
who is your #1, if instead you focus on loading up your staff with a bunch or
#2 and #3’s.It is possible that Morrow,
Dickey, a new unknown guy (see question 5) or yes, even Johnson could be the
Jays ace next year.
3. Whoa,
wtf?Johnson? Should the Jays qualify
him at $14M?
Yes, IF the Jays believe he is healthy.Look I know he had a terrible, horrible, no good, very
bad year.
But if JJ is healthy, this is a guy who was
a DOMINANT force from 2006 -2012 (aside from injuries)
So yeah, I am more than willing to take a
1-year $14M risk on a guy with a history of excellence.It is a low cost gamble on a guy who will be
hungry to put 2013 behind him.
4. How
important is it for the Jays to have a healthy & productive Brandon Morrow
next year?
I know it might be the most important piece
of the jig-saw puzzle.Or at least a
corner piece.
5.
Should the Jays trade for or sign another #2 guy?
I know the answer is
6. What
should the Jays do with Ricky Romero?
I know if you love someone, you should let them
go.....something, something, something.
I’m sorry; it’s over for RR Cool Jay in
Toronto.I just don’t see how it turns
around for him here.And that really sucks.
7.
Which other “starting pitchers” shouldn’t we trust and look to move?
I know the correct answer is anyone, but I
would look to move Happ back to the NL where I think he could succeed as a #4/5?
Maybe?
8. So
what should the starting 5 look like next year?
I know that’s the wrong question.If last year and this year have demonstrated anything,
it is that you need to focus on depth.I
won’t feel comfortable come Spring Training if the Jays don’t have at least
five “dependable” guys plus another five quality arms who could crack the staff.
Trust me; injuries will come again next year.
9. So
what should the SP depth chart look like going into next year?
I know this doesn’t scare me toooooooo
much:
1.Dickey
2.New Guy via trade or free
agency
3.Morrow
4.Buehrle
5.Johnson (if healthy and option is picked up)
I would then have the following guys
battling it out for the “6th spot” which inevitably will become the
4th or 5th spot once one of the above falters or gets
injured.
6.Rogers
7.Redmond
8.Drabek
9.Hutchison
10.Happ
11.McGowan
12.Stroman
13.Nolin
10.
So what does the bullpen look like?
I know it gets the leftovers from the above
plus returnees: Janssen, Delabar, Cecil , Loup, Santos, Wagner, Perez and possibly
Jeffress, Jenkins, Lincoln or John Stilson (who had a great year for the
Bisons). The bullpen will be fine, especially if next year's starting staff can go deeper into games.
11.
Is that too many arms?
I know you can never have enough pitching,
but yeah, holy crap that is at least 24 different somewhat healthy arms that
the Jays have under control for next year.Perhaps it is a lot of potential depth that could be used to
upgrade.I have to believe you could
work out some sort of package out of these guys for another dependable #3/4.I also know that despite his massive
contract, Buerhle has value if you want to include him in a deal and aim
higher.
So there we are. I know that it is a bit of
a mess right now, but what AA does have to play with is a vast quantity of
arms.The quality is a bit suspect, but
if you piece it together properly, there is real potential to upgrade for 2014.
I think I know that.Maybe.
P.S. Only one more blog entry to go on this Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season
Well not too much to get excited about at
this point. I mean September wins are fun and all, but they must be taken with a
grain of salt.
September really only gives us an opportunity to see
the young kids and to reflect on what went wrong.It also gives us a chance to look ahead and
plan towards 2014.With that being said
I give you Part 1 of "I Know What I Know".
1. Who
will be the Blue Jays starting catcher next year?
I know it can’t be the guy having one of
the most historically bad seasons in the history of baseball.Look, I don’t need to analyze this too much as
it has already been done (quite well I might add), but JP Arencibia has
eliminated ALL doubt in 2013 as to whether or not he deserves to be a MLB
starter.I had my hopes coming into 2013 (I
mean dear god, I actually drafted him as my second catcher in my AL only fantasy
league) but he has fallen flat on his face.It is also not as simple as bringing in a legitimate starter and
relegating him to a backup role because (a) his attitude sucks; and (b) he
can’t catch Dickey.
They don’t need Buster Posey or a Joe Mauer,
they just need to pick the right veteran guy who can get on base a bit and
play adequate defence.Every year there
is a veteran catcher who turns back time and surprises everyone.So I don’t know how you go about pulling the
rabbit out of the hat, but they need a #1 catcher.
I would also bring back Josh Thole as the
backup.He’s relatively young, he has
shown he can hit with the Mets and you need someone to catch Dickey.I still believe he has some upside and you
likely won’t find someone who's better AND who can catch a knuckler.
2. What
to do in the outfield?
I know they should do absolutely
nothing!Let Rajai "Family Circus Routes" Davis walk as a free agent,
bring back Bautista, Rasmus and Melky.Plan on Gose being your Davis replacement and 4th OF who can
actually play defence.These are no sure
things, but I am confident that J-Bau has many good years left in him. I am
also confident that Rasmus has turned the corner and is just now reaching his potential.I am less confident about Melky, but maybe
the leg issues were related to the tumour...and maybe they weren’t.But you have to find out and my goodness there
are more pressing needs that need filling.If Melky still sucks come May, you can give Gose a few more starts,
bring up Pillar/Sierra or possibly use the mystery man in the answer to question 3.
On that note, Sierra is not the answer, as
I’m sorry, all members of my Blue Jays team must have an IQ over 50 and he consistently
demonstrated that despite his talent, he is basically a semi-functioning idiot.
3.
Is it worth giving Adam Lind a roster spot?
I know that I feel like the Jays make this
mistake every winter....because they do.The answer is
no.Let’s see, he can’t play OF. He can
barely play 1B.He can’t run.He can’t hit LHP.He can sometimes hit RHP.And this is the guy you want as your DH on a
team aiming to make the playoffs? NO, for the hundredth time NO!I don’t care if his $7M option is a
reasonable price.Spend a few million
more and you can actually add a legitimate bat and not tie up a roster spot with a guy who can only do one thing.
There are a lot of options out there.Just look at the DH/OF/1B free agents:
Some of the better ones are PED guys (Cruz,
Byrd) which I wouldn’t have problem with, but no way AA is bringing in another
Melky.In any event, sadly I fear that
Lind will be back and I fear I will be yelling this at the top of my lungs next
year.
4.
Should Ryan Goins be in the mix for the 2B job?
He can’t
hit, or at least he can’t hit enough to warrant 150 starts.Therefore, a 2B who can hit for average, get on base and
play good defence should be near the top of AA’s priority list this off-season.
What Goins can do is play wicked defence as
a backup IF, grind out some ABs during his spot starts and be a viable pitch
runner off the bench.This idea I am
very much in support of which brings us to.....
5.
What should the bench look like?
I
know that unfortunately they signed Iztruis last winter (hmmm I guess I was also
wrong about that one) and due to his contract he seems destined to be back. But
if you could move Izturis, a R/L infielder bench with Goins and DeRosa would be
just swell.
So now that I’ve answered your questions,
where are we?For now, the order is not
important at the moment, but my ideal lineup would look like this:
Starters
1. Reyes - SS
2. Your new 2B
3. Bautista – LF
4. Encarnacion – 1B
5. Rasmus – CF
6. Lawrie – 3B
7. Your new DH
8. Cabrera – LF
9. Your new Catcher
Bench
10. Gose – 4th OF and Pitch
Runner
11. DeRosa – IF RHB
12. Goins – IF LHB
13. Thole – Backup Catcher
Let Davis walk as a free agent, and trade/give up
on Arencibia, Lind & Izturis.
Obviously 3 holes to fill before you even
turn to the pitching is not easy.But
hey whoever said being a GM was easy.
I promise not to make this a habit, but allow me again to forget about the Jays for a moment
as it has been a magical ride of season for my other favourite team – The
Pittsburgh Pirates. They have already ended 20 consecutive losing seasons
of baseball and they are on the cusp of clinching a playoff spot.
So in light of the playoffs, I hereby give you the Top Ten reasons
why everyone should make the drive to Pittsburgh for the post-season*
1.
The Ballpark.PNC is consistently ranked as the best (or one of the best) ballparks in
all of baseball.Amazing architecture
looking out over the river and the city, great seats & site lines, fair
prices and you get the best walk to the park in all baseball.Start from the downtown, over Roberto
Clemente bridge to the North Shore and the park.FYI, there are three yellow bridges in total;
the other two are named after Andy Warhol and Rachel Carson.The vibe around the stadium is lively with
lots of bars, impromptu parties and outdoor events.
Additionally, Jason Grilli who was/is their
lights out closer for most of the year (until injury) is nicknamed “Grilled
Cheese”.His fill-in Mark Melancon may
be the best reliever in all of baseball this year and has been nicknamed THE
NORTH SHORE STRANGLER by some Canadian bloggers.His vacant eyes and menacing look are quite terrifying!
3.
The History
The Pittsburgh Alleghenys joined the
National League in 1887!They were
renamed the Pittsburg Innocents** for a year in 1890 and then became
the Pirates in 1891 after they literally “pirated” away players from other
teams.How freaking cool is that? This is a team with a deep history that
includes Honus Wagner, Willie Stargell and Bill Mazeroski - the only man to win
Game 7 of a World Series with a HR. Of course is is also the team of Roberto
Clemente, a trailblazer for Puerto Rico, a genuine “humanitarian” and a baseball Hall of Famer.
There are not enough words to do Clemente
justice. I am happy to lend you some books on the Man if you wish....I have a
few (including a graphic novel).
4. The
Canadian Connection
·Russell
Nathan Jeanson Coltrane Martin, Jr. - Born in
Toronto and grew up in Quebec, he leads the majors in runners caught stealing
with 34 and a spectacular 42 percent caught stealing rate.Don’t run on Jussell!Martin has also been great at
the plate with some memorable walk-offs AB’s this year.I hated him for ditching Canada at the WBC,
but he said he wanted to be fresh for the MLB season and playoffs. Others
laughed, but the man is a prophet.All is
forgiven Jussell.
·Justin Morneau – I love Morneau, but
quite frankly he is a shell of his former self after all the injuries.He may not even be an upgrade over the platooon of Gabby
Sanchez/Garrett Jones a.k.a GI Jones, the Pirates were running out most
of the season.But Morneau could get hot
and he is experienced.More importantly,
the trades to bring Morneau and the Byrd Man to Bucco Nation represented something
bigger.It essentially was Pittsburgh
telling the baseball world “Fuck It - We are going for it!”
5.
Cutch
Andrew McCutchen is awesome.There are a million reasons
why.This link should give you a reason
to love him too.
On June 3, 2009, after the Pirates traded their
starting center fielder to the Atlanta Braves, McCutchen was called up to the
majors for the first time.He made his
debut the next day, playing the now vacant center field spot and batting
leadoff against the New York Mets. He singled in his first career at-bat. He
ended the day with two singles, one RBI, three runs scored and a stolen base in
four at bats.He recorded his first
career four-hit game five days later, against the Braves, in a 7-6 Pirates
loss.The Rook was on fire.
On that August long weekend, my wife and I
suddenly found ourselves with a packed car and nowhere to go. I somehow
convinced her that a Pirates game would be a great idea.I think I offered her some outlet mall
shopping.
Anyways, less than two months after his MLB
debut, against the Natiionals, Cutch went 4-for-5 with three home runs and six RBIs. He
hit a solo home run in the first inning to lead off the game, a
two-run shot in the fourth inning, and then a three-run homer
in the sixth off.I will never forget that night; PNC was
electric and filled with hope.It is one
of my top three baseball memories.The
other two being the Jays 1989 ALCS Game three win over Oakland (I've never been to a
louder sporting event) and the night we were at Fenway with front row, dugout
seats to see Jose hit his Blue Jays record breaking 48th HR.
But I
digress.Where was I?Oh yeah, I love Cutch. I love that he turned
down free agency and stuck with the Pirates, I love his attitude and I love
that he has helped transform the Pirates into winners.
6. Patience
has paid off
In addition to Cutch, Pedro Alvarez (El Toro!),
Gerritt Cole (Cole Train), Starling Marte & Neil Walker are all integral home
grown Pirates.It has been a painful few
years, but the patience of management has paid off and the high draft picks
have turned into all-stars.And there is
more on the way next year in the form of Canadian phenom- Jameson Taillon
7.
The Food and Beer
Their former catcher Manny Sangueillen has his own BBQ joint at the park. He serves food and signs autographs every game. Awesome! Manny's BBQ
This is a Primanti Bros sandwich. I mean sure you cooouuld have your french fries and coleslaw on the side, but why not put it all in the sandwich!
In addition to Yuengling everywhere, PNC is rated as the 4th best stadium for craft beers and the 5th cheapest prices in MLB - Beer Prices!
8. AJ
& Liriano - The island of misfit SPs
A.J. Burnett is the pitcher everybody wants, and then doesn't want and then you want him again. Does that make sense? Everyone in Toronto is familiar with the good A.J. and the bad A.J. The Yankees are familiar with both as well. But you know who showed up in Pittsburgh, humbled and willing to be a leader? Just the good A.J.! (so far). The fact that New York has been paying most of his salary the past two years just makes it even sweeter.
You know who else is amazing? Francisco Liriano. With an ERA below 3.00, more than a K/inning and 15 wins he has been a fantastic free agent signing. It was a huge risk and some laughed when he got injured just as he signed the contract, but it is the Pirates who are having the last laugh on this one.
9. Manager Clint
Hurdle
Actually, this probably should not be a reason on this list as Clint seems to be a pretty poor in-game strategist. But the players love him, the city loves him, and he has managed to stay upbeat after two consecutive epic collapses in 2011 and 2012. Oh and he looks like Grimace!
I guess he does deserve to make the list.
10.
Greg Brown
I have been listening to the Pirates radio
broadcasts for a few years now on the MLB Atbat app.It’s a wicked app.
The Pirates move their announcers back and
forth from radio to TV and the best play-by-play guy by far is Greg Brown.He is doing more TV lately so it is another
reason why I sprung for MLBTV for the final month of the season.
Brown grew up in Mechanicsburg,
Pennsylvania and was a die-hard Pirates fan in his youth. Brown enrolled at
Point Park College and landed an internship with the Pirates' promotion
department in 1979, where his duties
included serving as the backup Pirate Parrot!!!!He then worked in the Pirates' front office
for 10 years in a variety of roles for the sales, broadcasting and public
relations departments. He was also the public address announcer in 1987.
Brown spent five seasons (1989–93) doing
play-by-play for the Pirates' Class AAA affiliate in Buffalo, NY. He also
hosted a sports talk show on WGR radio. For three seasons (1991–93), Brown was
the colour analyst on Buffalo Bills radio broadcasts and also hosted pre-game
and post-game shows for the Bills games. He also called basketball games for
the Buffalo Bulls.
Brown is known for his call "Raise the
Jolly Roger" after every Pirates win. He also utters "Clear the deck,
cannonball coming!" on home runs hit by the Pirates.He is not a homer like Hawk Harrleson as he
is not afraid to criticize the team. But his passion for the team is
infectious.
Hmmm.... I guess this is really a reason to
stay home and watch the games on TV instead.Ah screw it, let’s go to Pittsburgh!Maybe we can meet Greg and give him a big hug...or this guy.
This is not Greg Brown, but I really wanted to include this photo.
* I will definitely regret this blog entry
if they don’t end up hosting a playoff game.
** Not a typo. Around the time the team just
before adopted the Pirates nickname, the United States Board on Geographic
Names forced the city of Pittsburgh to undergo a controversial name change by
having them drop the "h" at the end of the name, making the team's
official name the "Pittsburg Pirates" from the adoption of the
Pirates nickname until Pittsburgh was able to get the "h" restored to
its name in 1911.
Last 10 games: 7 - 3 A little late for this run, but it beats losing Overall: 64 - 76 Projected Finish: 74 - 88 Travis Snider hit a 9th inning home run on Tuesday night to win the game and build the division lead to two games......of course unfortunately/fortunately he did this for the Pittsburgh Pirates and not the Blue Jays.
This season has been tremendously frustrating for a Blue Jays fan. It has been one disappointment after another since Opening Day. But I must say, watching my beloved Pirates from afar has been quite enjoyable.
Now it appears, not only will the Pirates have their first winning season in 20 years, they will also be in the playoffs with a great shot at winning their division. I am also likely heading down to the most beautiful place on earth to catch a playoff game.
So Bucco up Blue Jays fans. The losingest team in baseball is finally tasting success in 2013. I mean if Pittsburgh can win, anyone can win. Our time in Toronto will come. But until then, RAISE IT!
So the big news this week is that AA came out and said that while no one involved with this team is without fault, AA feels that Gibby had done a pretty good job this year and would be back for 2014.
Cue the hysteria! How dare he stand behind his hand-picked manager after nearly a WHOLE SEASON!!
I mean clearly Gibby is the one who has been serving up all those HR's.
It was Gibby who got hurt and couldn't play 3B.
It was Gibby who piled up all those strikeouts on pitches out of the zone.
It was Gibby the former NL batting champ who couldn't hit or run or throw.....
Wait it wasn't Gibby? I thought a team's success was strongly correlated to the manager? Good managers win pennants and bad managers end up with the Jays right? Right?
Well, I have been having this debate with two friends over the past few days and I'm in the camp of a good manager may be worth at most, an extra three or four wins a season and a bad manager may cost you two to three losses a season. But I have no way to prove this. And you have no way to prove I'm wrong.
I mean what comes first? The well performing team creates the impression of a great manager or a good manager builds up a good team?
I believe that strong performances from players make managers look good. Torre, La Russa and Francona, just to name three examples, were all disasters and fired at one point. So were they bad managers previously who turned into good managers later? Or why was Mike Hargrove such a genius in Cleveland in the 90s and terrible since then?
Hmm interesting..... maybe that is something we can delve into a little further. Why don't we take a look at the managerial records of all AL and NL pennant winning managers. And to be fair, we are only going to look at how they did after their World Series appearances when they were in a new gig with a new team. No sense in giving a Joe Torre undo credit for having a Yankees juggernaut year after year. Or penalizing a manager as their champion teams go through an inevitable decline e.g. Lasorda. I mean if a manager is THAT important, they SHOULD be able to switch orgnizations and have success right? To the Wikipedia! Let's take a look from 1980-2000 at all pennant winning managers who subsequently managed different teams and grade them in terms of SUCCESS or FAIL during such subsequent tenure.
Dallas Green - Won the World Series with the Phillies in 1980. Fired a few years later. With the Yankees (1989), he was under .500 at 56–65 (.463). With the Mets (1993–96), he was under .500 at 229–283 (.447). FAIL
Jim Frey - Won the AL pennant with the Royals in 1980. Went onto manage the Cubs and won a division title. SUCCESS
Dick Williams - Won the NL Pennant with the Padres in 1984 - Went onto manage the Mariners and put together a dismal record of 126 - 192. FAIL
Davey Johnson - Davey won the World Series in 1986. I think Davey is the rare manager who does make a true difference. Years ago I openly pined for the Jays to hire Johnson. After his tenure with the Mets, Johnson reached the playoffs with the Reds, Orioles and Nationals. His only blip was a bad year with the Dodgers....oh and this year. SUCCESS
John McNamara - Won the AL pennant in 86 but lost to Johnson's Mets. Went onto Cleveland and put together a very bad record of 102-137. FAIL
Tony LaRussa - Won three straight AL pennants with the A's (88-90). Went onto win 2 World Series with the Cardinals. I hate Tony LaRussa, but he was a thinker and probably a good manager. But remember, this is the same guy who tried to blame his critical bullpen mishandling in the World Series on a broken phone and then got caught in a lie. SUCCESS
Lou Pinella - Won the world Series with the Reds in 1990. Another great manager in my mind. Went onto have success in Seattle and Chicago, but was a disaster in Tampa. SUCCESS
Cito Gaston - Won back-to-back World Series. Now he never worked anywhere but Toronto, but there was a long enough gap you can call them two different teams. He must have lost his magic pixie dust during his second tenure because the Jays had three consecutive 4th place finishes under Gaston. FAIL
Jim Fregosi - Won the NL pennant in 1993 and lost to Touch em all Joe! Hey another Jays connection! Another proven winner! Let's hire him. Oops. What happened?. FAIL but not too badly.
Mike Hargrove. Won two pennants with Cleveland. Managed the Orioles and Mariners after that for a combined 6 full seasons. Finished 4th every year. FAIL
Jim Leyland - Won the World Series with the Marlins in 1997. Went on to manage in Colorado and lose 90 games. Years later ended up in Detroit...we know how that has gone. SUCCESS
Joe Torre - Damn Yankees! Finished his career withe Dodgers and won two division titles before finishing 4th. SUCCESS
Bruce Bochy - Won the NL pennant with the Padres in 1998...wait that happened?
Huh. Anyways Bruce has gone onto lead the Giants to two World Series. SUCCESS
14. Bobby Valentine - Won the NL pennant in 2000 with the Mets. Um does anyone remember how last year went in Boston?
I'm going to stop here, because all of managers that won in 00's, may still end up with other orgnizations in future years. So we have 14 examples.7 pennant winning managers who went to have success elsewhere and 7 winning pennant managers who went onto fail elsewhere......so 50%? What does that tell us? Nothing really, but based on this very limited exercise, there is no direct correlation between the manager and success. Do I think that some managers are worth more than others and can in fact lead to a few more wins? For sure. I'm not going to try and argue that Davey Johnson, Joe Torre and Bruce Bochy are not great managers. But they are the rare exceptions. In the big picture, it doesn't matter. You can win with a moron e.g. Bobby Valentine
And you can lose with a genius e.g. Leyland in Colorado, Johnson in LA and Pinella in Tampa.
So let's all give Gibby a break and accept that this year's failure is on the players and the GM who assembled those pieces. If next year we see more of the same, you can all sharpen your knives then. And I hope if they do have success that you will give a ton of credit to Gibby. Personally I will be complimenting the players.....and still loving Gibby!
