Monday, 23 September 2013

I Know What I Know Part II - I Don't Really Know

This post really shouldn’t be Part II of “I Know What I Know - Part I” because I really don’t know what to do about the starting staff.  I have strong views on the starting 9 and the bullpen, but damn if I KNOW how to fix a starting staff that in March was going to be a pillar of strength and by the end of April had turned into a disaster.  Anyhoo, let’s give it a shot and pretend that I actually have the answers.

1. Should the Jays have faith that Dickey has settled down and can at least be a #2 type guy next year?
I know I don’t know.  Yes?  No?  I want to believe, I really do. I do know he is trying his best to figure it out.

2.  If Dickey is #2, who is #1?
I know it might not matter in the winter who is your #1, if instead you focus on loading up your staff with a bunch or #2 and #3’s.  It is possible that Morrow, Dickey, a new unknown guy (see question 5) or yes, even Johnson could be the Jays ace next year.

3. Whoa, wtf?  Johnson? Should the Jays qualify him at $14M?
Yes, IF the Jays believe he is healthy.  Look I know he had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year. 


But if JJ is healthy, this is a guy who was a DOMINANT force from 2006 -2012 (aside from injuries)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo09.shtml

So yeah, I am more than willing to take a 1-year $14M risk on a guy with a history of excellence.  It is a low cost gamble on a guy who will be hungry to put 2013 behind him.
4. How important is it for the Jays to have a healthy & productive Brandon Morrow next year?
I know it might be the most important piece of the jig-saw puzzle.  Or at least a corner piece.

5. Should the Jays trade for or sign another #2 guy?
I know the answer is


6. What should the Jays do with Ricky Romero?
I know if you love someone, you should let them go.....something, something, something.

I’m sorry; it’s over for RR Cool Jay in Toronto.  I just don’t see how it turns around for him here.  And that really sucks.
7. Which other “starting pitchers” shouldn’t we trust and look to move?
I know the correct answer is anyone, but I would look to move Happ back to the NL where I think he could succeed as a #4/5? Maybe?
8. So what should the starting 5 look like next year?

I know that’s the wrong question.  If last year and this year have demonstrated anything, it is that you need to focus on depth.  I won’t feel comfortable come Spring Training if the Jays don’t have at least five “dependable” guys plus another five quality arms who could crack the staff. Trust me; injuries will come again next year. 
9. So what should the SP depth chart look like going into next year?
I know this doesn’t scare me toooooooo much:
1.       Dickey

2.       New Guy via trade or free agency

3.       Morrow

4.       Buehrle

5.       Johnson (if healthy and option is picked up)
I would then have the following guys battling it out for the “6th spot” which inevitably will become the 4th or 5th spot once one of the above falters or gets injured.
6.       Rogers

7.       Redmond

8.       Drabek

9.       Hutchison

10.     Happ

11.     McGowan

12.     Stroman

13.     Nolin
10. So what does the bullpen look like?
I know it gets the leftovers from the above plus returnees: Janssen, Delabar, Cecil , Loup, Santos, Wagner, Perez and possibly Jeffress, Jenkins, Lincoln or John Stilson (who had a great year for the Bisons).  The bullpen will be fine, especially if next year's starting staff can go deeper into games.
11. Is that too many arms?
I know you can never have enough pitching, but yeah, holy crap that is at least 24 different somewhat healthy arms that the Jays have under control for next year.  Perhaps it is a lot of potential depth that could be used to upgrade.  I have to believe you could work out some sort of package out of these guys for another dependable #3/4.  I also know that despite his massive contract, Buerhle has value if you want to include him in a deal and aim higher.
So there we are. I know that it is a bit of a mess right now, but what AA does have to play with is a vast quantity of arms.  The quality is a bit suspect, but if you piece it together properly, there is real potential to upgrade for 2014. I think I know that.  Maybe.

P.S. Only one more blog entry to go on this Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season

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